If the two factions of NCP are unable to unite due to conflict of political ambitions, then sooner or later there will be a greater possibility of Ajit faction merging with BJP, because 41 of its MLAs would like to return to the Assembly after winning the next elections, for which the name of a big party or leader is required.
Ajit Pawar passes away, deep void in Maharashtra politics.
The possibility of the two factions of NCP uniting has increased.
The future of the family and the party is in front of Sharad Pawar.
Raj Kumar Singh. The death of Ajit Pawar once again underlined the truth of life that man is helpless in front of destiny. The person, who by his name and work earned the address of 'Dada' in Maharashtra politics, had to be identified with 'Ghari' after his death in a plane crash. Incidentally, 'clock' is the election symbol of Ajit's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). There is a record in Ajit's name for becoming the Deputy Chief Minister in the country the maximum number of times - six times. Due to his love for power, his paths also diverged from his uncle Sharad Pawar, by whose finger he had entered politics.
After a very poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections, Ajit's NCP surprised with its excellent performance in the assembly elections. He overpowered uncle Sharad Pawar's party, but politics is a game of unlimited possibilities. Here both the groups started coming closer. In the recent civic elections, both of them had contested the elections in alliance at some places, while the intention was to fight the upcoming District Panchayat elections also together. Therefore, the big question in the political circles is whether the Pawar family and the two factions of NCP will be united after Ajit's death?
After Sharad Pawar, who was active in national politics, handed over the politics of Maharashtra to Ajit, he was considered the political successor, but the nephew's ambitions started clashing with the increasing political activism of daughter Supriya Sule. This conflict came to the surface for the first time when Devendra Fadnavis suddenly took oath as the Chief Minister and Ajit Pawar as the Deputy Chief Minister at the Raj Bhavan in 2019. That government could run only for about 82 hours, but by making Ajit the Deputy Chief Minister from NCP quota in the alternative government formed under the leadership of Uddhav Thackeray, the message was sent that the cracks in the Pawar family have been filled.
That understanding remained intact only until the BJP succeeded in forming a new government under the leadership of Eknath Shinde due to the split in Shiv Sena. The government had majority in the Assembly, yet Ajit Pawar broke the NCP and became the Deputy Chief Minister. Along with Ajit's love for power, BJP's distrust in Shinde was also a big factor in this. Despite alone winning 132 seats in the 288-member Assembly in the 2024 elections, the BJP formed a coalition government with Shinde and Ajit as Deputy Chief Ministers. In fact, the relatively reliable Ajit was also used by the BJP to control the very ambitious Shinde.
Now that Ajit Pawar is no more, the question is whether the equations of the Fadnavis government will also change? Obviously, the correct answer to both these questions will depend on the politics of the Pawar family. Those who know the Pawar family and its politics believe that in view of the way Maratha politics has been marginalized in the last assembly elections, there is no option for both the factions of NCP except unity to regain the lost status. Of course, better family understanding will be helpful in this, but political power will have to be divided. After all, why wouldn't the family of the nephew who defeated his uncle in the assembly elections want its share in political power? Naturally, BJP will have no strategic problem in making Ajit's wife Sunetra or one of his two sons, Parth and Jai, as Deputy Chief Minister, but how long will that system last without charismatic leadership?
Of course, there are leaders like Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare, but when Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are held in 2029, the Ajit faction of NCP will need an election-winning face. In such a situation, Sharad Pawar, standing in the twilight of his life, will have to strike a logical balance between the power ambitions of the family. Most important will be the leadership of a united NCP. Accepting the role of guide himself, Sharad Pawar can find a formula for unity by handing over Delhi politics to his daughter and Maharashtra politics to the successor chosen by Ajit's family, but choosing the political path of a united NCP will be another big challenge. Will the elder Pawar abandon the opposition front INDIA and join the NDA to establish his nephew's family and daughter in power politics? Anyway, there is hardly anyone in the top leadership of BJP with whom Pawar does not have direct contact and communication. Even if Pawar is called 'power player'.
If a united NCP joins the NDA, then not only will BJP's dependence on Eknath Shinde, the master dealmaker of power in Maharashtra, end, but it will also become easier for it to win majority on its own in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections by winning most of the seats from the country's second largest state. If the two factions of NCP are unable to unite due to conflict of political ambitions, then sooner or later there will be a greater possibility of Ajit faction merging with BJP, because 41 of its MLAs would like to return to the Assembly after winning the next elections, for which the name of a big party or leader is required.
(The author is a senior journalist and political analyst)
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