Fear of India-Pakistan conflict in 2026 due to terrorist activities in Kashmir (file photo)
Digital Desk, New Delhi. America's prestigious think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has warned in its annual report 'Conflicts to Watch in 2026' that there is a 'medium probability' of armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026 due to increasing terrorist activities in Kashmir and PoK.
The report is based on a survey of US foreign policy experts and describes the conflict as having a 'moderate impact' on US interests. The report said that tensions remain high due to the brief military confrontation (Operation Sindoor) that followed the Pahalgam terrorist attack in May this year and the subsequent increase in military preparedness in both the countries.
CFR noted that the Trump administration's second term has seen efforts to end many conflicts, including those between India and Pakistan, but the situation in Kashmir remains fragile due to terrorism and repression.
In response to the deadly attack in Pahalgam in April 2025 that killed 26 civilians, India launched Operation Vermillion on 6–7 May. During this period, 9 terrorist camps based in Pakistan were targeted and more than 100 terrorists were killed.
Pakistan responded with drone strikes, but the Indian Army foiled all infiltrations. Ceasefire took place on May 10 after contact between the two countries at the DGMO level.
The report also described a 'medium probability' of conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which could be triggered by cross-border attacks by the TTP. Experts believe that Pakistan's terrorism policy remains the main cause of regional instability.
A survey of experts suggests the world could become more violent by 2026, and South Asia is at the center of it. The CFR advised US policymakers to keep an eye on these conflicts, as they could affect regional stability.