Vijay's party, which is trying to establish itself as a leader from actor, can also spoil the game on some seats. The prestige of the Thackeray family will be at stake in the BMC elections in Maharashtra. If Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray, who came together after a long time, are not able to achieve success together, then their political future will be stuck in limbo. Reconciliation is also going on in the Nationalist Congress Party before the elections, but what will be achieved from it? Next year will bring answers to all such questions.
Assembly elections in many states next year, political future at stake.
Challenge of survival and expansion for BJP, Congress, Left parties.
Thackeray family's prestige, future of regional parties in BMC elections.
Rahul Verma. The next year is going to prove to be very important from the point of view of determining the political scenario of the country. Assembly elections will be held in Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry next year, in which all the parties have something at stake. Elections are also to be held for the richest municipal body Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation i.e. BMC. In the event of elections on some Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant, a tussle may be seen between the parties. The next year will also solve many political puzzles. For example, will the BJP, which has expanded across the country on a large scale, be able to increase its penetration by creating favorable conditions for itself in the states which are proving to be politically infertile or not? The Congress vehicle which got derailed again after Bharat Jodo Yatra, will it be able to get back on track or not? Will the Left parties, which are facing existential crisis, be able to save their last bastion of power or not? What destiny will the regional parties achieve?
If we talk about BJP, then the assembly elections will confirm how much success will its efforts to make inroads in new areas get? In the states where elections are to be held, only Assam has its government and in Puducherry a government with its support is in power. There are good chances of the BJP coming back to power in Assam, which has been in power for ten years, but it is certain that this time it is facing a tough challenge from the Gaurav Gogoi-led Congress. If Congress shows political skills then BJP's equations may get disturbed. Despite all the efforts in Bengal, the party is stuck at the second position. The path with which Mamata Banerjee has firmly gripped the power in the state is not going to be easy for the BJP. However, encouraged by the victory in Bihar, BJP is preparing to enter the battle of Bengal with new energy. As a strategy, he has also started raising the issue of Bangladeshi infiltrators vigorously.
In the south, Kerala and Tamil Nadu remain a distant dream for the BJP. Despite all efforts in Tamil Nadu, which has 39 Lok Sabha seats, its account was not even opened in the last Lok Sabha elections. In such a situation, he is dependent on his alliance partners only. In the two-polar politics of Kerala, BJP is currently focusing on becoming the third pole. The victory in the Thiruvananthapuram civic elections has given it strength and courage, even if not a little. In such a situation, it remains to be seen how strongly the party presents its challenge in the assembly elections.
The next year is not going to be less challenging for Congress. Congress, which was hoping to make a comeback in Assam, has almost reached the margins in Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, she has become a lackey of DMK. The party's real hopes are linked to Kerala, where it is busy making a strategy to wrest power from the Left parties. There are favorable signs for him that the party has got the expected success in the recent civic elections. However, the Congress, which is known for losing the battles it had won in many elections in the past, is facing no less problems in Kerala too. There is a situation of tussle regarding leadership in the party. Apart from factionalism in the local unit, the state leadership also has apprehensions about the powerful General Secretary KC Venugopal that if he gets power, he may stake his claim to become the Chief Minister. There was a time when there was clarity regarding the party leadership in the state, but after AK Antony's entry into central politics, it has been struggling to create a situation of acceptance regarding the leadership in the state. If this is not resolved in time then the throne of power in Kerala will remain away from him.
For the Left parties too, the next year is related to the question of survival. The Left parties, which were in power in Bengal and Tripura for a long time, are now living in political exile in these two states. If he also leaves power in Kerala, he will be left with nothing. At a time when this ideology has completed a hundred years since its arrival in India, such a possible situation of powerlessness will only raise questions on its ideological relevance. The next year will also determine a lot for some other regional satraps.
The enthusiasm with which Trinamool is engaged in Bengal does not seem to allow rival BJP to easily make political gains. However, considering the strategy and resources with which BJP contests the elections, the path will not be easy for Mamata Banerjee also. DMK's stronghold in Tamil Nadu seems somewhat impregnable, as the political vacuum created in the state after Jayalalithaa's demise has not yet been filled. The internal tussle in AIADMK has also made Chief Minister Stalin's job easier. However, the new energy in the opposition alliance due to so many years of anti-incumbency tendencies and the coordinated efforts of the BJP will definitely increase the challenge for Stalin.
Vijay's party, which is trying to establish itself as a leader from an actor, can also spoil the game on some seats. The prestige of the Thackeray family will be at stake in the BMC elections in Maharashtra. If Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray, who came together after a long time, are not able to achieve success together, then their political future will be stuck in the balance. Reconciliation is also going on in the Nationalist Congress Party before the elections, but what will be achieved from it? Next year will bring answers to all such questions.
(The author is Associate Professor at Shiv Nadar University, Chennai and Fellow at the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi)
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