What will be the impact of Bangladesh election results in India? BNP trying to strengthen relations
Know the main points and gist of the news at a glance
Jaiprakash Ranjan, Jagran. The emergence of BJP (BNP) as the largest party in the general elections of Bangladesh and Jamaat-e-Islami staying away from majority gives a balanced signal for India. In the absence of Awami League, this election has brought a new political structure, in which a new government is going to be formed under the leadership of Tariq Rehman.
Given the current regional and global circumstances, these results are more of an opportunity than a crisis for India. Experts believe that BNP will show a more pragmatic approach towards India which can actually encourage economic cooperation.
Jamaat away from majority: Relief from security point of view
India's relations with the BNP have been complex in the past, yet under any circumstances the situation would be considered relatively balanced with the Jamaat in direct power. Jamaat-e-Islami's ideological leanings have long been considered close to pro-Pakistan politics and Islamic fundamentalist currents.
If it had got a clear majority, concerns like instability on India's north-eastern borders, activation of radical networks and cross-border infiltration could have increased. In the past, Jamaat has made anti-India sentiments a political issue.
Staying away from the majority indicates that the power in Bangladesh has not completely moved towards ideological polarization. With this, India will not have to face additional pressure on the security front, at least in the short term.
Economic Crisis Primary Challenge: The Imperative of Cooperation
Bangladesh is currently going through economic pressures, with declining foreign exchange reserves, pressure on the export sector (especially ready-made garments), rising inflation and employment challenges. In such a scenario, the first priority of the BNP government will be to stabilize the economy and restore investment confidence.
Trade and connectivity between India and Bangladesh has grown significantly in the last decade. Projects like energy cooperation, power exports, petroleum pipelines, rail-road connectivity and port utilization practically connect the two countries.
After the year 2020, there has been an investment of about five billion dollars from India. It would be economically harmful for the new government to disrupt these projects. There is no indication of a confrontational attitude towards India in the BNP manifesto.
The party can take relations forward on a practical basis by understanding the economic reality. India can play an important role in economic reconstruction through markets, investment and energy supply.
Interdependence: Strength of relationships
Relations between India and Bangladesh are not based only on political equations, but they are structurally linked. Bangladesh's role in the connectivity of North-East India is very important. Systems like railways, inland waterways, road corridors and border haats are directly linked to the local economy and people's lives.
Stopping or slowing down these projects would also be an economic loss for Dhaka. Millions of Bangladeshis depend on India for medical treatment and are suffering a lot due to the recent tension in bilateral relations.
In such a situation, the new government there can adopt a cooperative attitude with India considering the needs of the general public, which will strengthen the image of BNP. Therefore, she can insist on maintaining continuity in practical political relations.
Strategic balance in the changing global order
Competition is intensifying in the Indo-Pacific region. China's economic activism and its equations with Pakistan affect the regional balance. In such a situation, it would be risky for Bangladesh to completely depend on any one axis. India's importance as a stable, reliable and geographically close partner naturally increases in the changing global circumstances.
Cooperation in areas such as energy security, maritime cooperation, disaster management and supply chain resilience is also in Dhaka's interest. Considering the stand of BNP from the Indian side, a quick decision can be taken on the old complex issues going on between the two countries like sharing of river water etc.
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